by Gill Moodie (@grubstreetSA) What can we expect of 2015 as media professionals in South Africa?
Well, we already know that the old business model for print — where the majority of the hard-hitting watch-dog and investigative journalism happens — is dead and the search for sustainable online revenue is on.
Secondly, we also know that more and more people — especially Generation Y — are consuming content digitally and on their smartphones AND expect more from content… but are also more fickle as they leap effortlessly between local and international news sources.
Thirdly, we are only beginning to understand how transformative social media is… but there are storytelling lessons from traditional media that still count.
Douglas Adams once said
This state of affairs makes me think of Douglas Adams, who once said:
I believe that journalism will make the transition to digital but I see difficult times ahead for the journalists, publishers and media owners as they make the transition — especially for print. I see more retrenchments of staff, cutbacks on the costly distribution and printing and closure of products in the print world in 2015 and the next few years.
Two very telling remarks — that sent a chill down my spine — came in the latter part of 2014 from two different media groups:
- Media24 said of the closure of its Durban tabloid edition of The Witness when it axed the paper four months after launch that although it “showed positive early results… the investment period was too long. Traditional print media in South Africa, like media businesses around the world, is under pressure and we don’t have the benefit of being such patient investors.”
- Blackstar said when it announced its deal with Kagiso Tiso Holdings that will result in Times Media Group becoming wholly owned by Blackstar:
In the face of digital media and the decline of tangible media (i.e. print media), TMG currently has limited scope for future investment and therefore limited opportunity to optimise shareholder returns. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tiso Blackstar, TMG’s future cash flows may be utilised to support Tiso Blackstar’s broader strategy allowing for potential reinvestment in other value yielding sectors.
What both of these companies are saying is that other media platforms are being strategically prioritised over print. While this is a very sound business move the two companies, it will also mean upheaval for the journalists in the newsrooms. No doubt about it. For many in newspapers, the old way of doing things is about to come to an end sooner rather than later.
Here are the major trends I see playing out in 2015 in media in South Africa:
- The economy will remain tight and consumers’ discretionary spending will remain under pressure;
- Newspaper circulations will continue to decline & competition for advertising will remain fierce;
- There will be consolidation in newspaper and magazine industries – if not title closure, then possibly in distribution & printing;
- There will be more retrenchments and more multi-tasking for journalists;
- Print-media inflation will rise (and the giant DStv, which offers very competitive ad rates, will take a bigger slice of the pie);
- There will be more social-media marketing and content marketing by big business (decreasing the need for traditional advertising) plus custom publishing will remain strong;
- There will be more cross-platform and cross-product ad selling by media houses;
- Less is more in digital – with many online news teams staying lean and mean – as sustainable digital revenue remains elusive;
- There will be more visual content – images and videos – in digital and social media;
- Broadcasters such as eNCA, Primedia’s Eyewitness News and SABC Online will get more action on their websites and social-media channels because of their multimedia capability;
- There will be more news apps and mobisites as smartphones and tablets become cheaper more numerous;
- E-commerce will pick up;
- We will see more innovative subscription deals across platforms from media houses while we will see some paywalls being dropped because of the difficulty of selling digital-only subscriptions;
- Investigative journalism will stay the course;
- We will see a wider use of PAIA and media law to gain access to information;
- Data-visualisation journalism and data journalism will remain in stasis as few news rooms have the resources;
- Attacks on media freedom by the government and the ANC will continue even with a strengthened Press Council in play (while we must not forget the Media Appeals Tribunal is still on the table);
- Violent attacks on journalists – eg. amid service delivery protests – are likely to remain a part of the landscape; and
- Smaller independent web players such Daily Maverick and Biznew.com will hold their course, if not grow, while citizen and civic-journalism programmes such as at GroundUp and Health-e News will continue to gain a foothold.
Meanwhile, question marks remain over:
- Funding for the South African Audience Research Foundation, which does the AMPS audience research in SA;
- Sapa funding and how it will reinvent itself; and
- The Media Development and Diversity Agency leadership, which is now under acting CEO Mshiyeni Gungqisa after Lumko Mtimde’s term came to an end, and whether it can improve its support of community media.
South Africa’s leading media commentator, Gill Moodie (@grubstreetSA) offers intelligence on media, old and new. Reprinted from her site Grubstreet. This piece was published first on Journalism.co.za, the website of Wits University’s journalism school.
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