The ANC under Jacob Zuma shows signs of losing its way, says The Economist in its August 7 edition, under the headline “A future of division, factionalism, stagnation and patronage”. Does this headline really reflect the mood of the nation? In February, April and June 2008, TNS Research Surveys also asked people whether they felt that Jacob Zuma is doing a good job as President of the ANC.

Q: “Is Jacob Zuma doing a good job as President of the ANC?”

Yes – 37% (36% in April and 36% in February)

No – 44% (40% in April and 38% in February)

Don’t know – 19% (24% in April and 26% in February)

The percentage of metro adults agreeing with the statement “I feel positive about South Africa and its future” has fallen to a new low of 49% in July 08 after an end-of-2006 reading of 64%and February reading of 60%.

TNS highlights numerous factors for this decline, including concern about the economy, very high food and fuel price, increasing interest rates, recent xenophobic violence and the situation in Zimbabwe. In addition, there is the ongoing suspension of the Police Commissioner, Jackie Selebi, and the Judge Hlope vs the Constitutional Court issue.

So the picture doesn’t look good. However the division and factionalism we are experiencing is current and not unexpected in the run up to the 2009 elections and economic stagnation is a global issue. The story could well simply have been called ‘The scourge of Patronage’.